Victor Pinchuk Foundation hosts discussion “A World War Ukraine Must Win” on the occasion of WEF 2025

Victor Pinchuk Foundation hosted the discussion “A World War Ukraine Must Win” during WEF in Davos (Switzerland). The event was held as a part of the project ‘YOUR COUNTRY FIRST – WIN WITH US’, organized by Victor Pinchuk Foundation and PinchukArtCentre in cooperation with the Office of the President of Ukraine. The project, which combines an ongoing discussion program and an exhibition, is an immersive intellectual and visual experience, and a space for dialogue and action.

Among the participants of the discussion were Timothy Snyder, Richard C. Levin Professor of History and Global Affairs, Yale University; Kenneth Woosuk Choi, Deputy Managing Editor of The Chosun Daily Newspaper, Director General, The Asian Leadership Conference; Philips O’Brien, Professor of Strategic Studies, St. Andrews University; Oz Katerji, Ukraine Correspondent, TVP World.

Moderator: Nataliya Gumeniuk, Co-founder, Public Interest Journalism Lab and The Reckoning project.

Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, a special guest of the discussion, opened the panel, making a presentation on the current situation and plans of the Russian Federation according to Ukraine. He said: “I will very briefly explain the Russian approach against Ukraine today. It is not just simple combat activity on the battlefield, there are three ways they are putting pressure on Ukraine. First, of course, there is the war on the battlefield, second, they are conducting a programme of destabilisation in Ukraine, and third, they are working to isolate Ukraine in the international community. Since the collapse of the USSR, their objective has been the same, full control of Ukraine, which means the destruction of our statehood and Ukrainian identity.”

Kenneth Woosuk Choi said: “I never imagined that one day there would be North Korean troops in the European war theatre. The last time it happened was around 1200 years ago! From day one I knew this was not a war about Ukraine, but about freedom and democracy. We made films about the war and published them on YouTube. YouTube suspended us for six weeks, we believe the Russians told them that our footage was outdated and not true. We were reinstated, and after that, we wrote extensively in our newspaper about the unjust wars perpetrated by Russians. 50 years ago, the Korean war was halted by an armistice, we didn’t win the war, but we won against North Korea because we are now the tenth largest economy in the world.”

Timothy Snyder, responding to the question, “If you had a chance to speak reasonably to those who disagree with you about why we should continue to support Ukraine, what arguments would you make?”, said: “I will start with the arguments I will use with those who agree. I would make the case in a non-political way. The war in Ukraine is about characterising the future in a very fundamental way, several fundamental ways. One has to do with whether we are going to continue to have the ability to communicate with each other without lies. Lies have had a huge impact on democracy, now they will have a huge effect on capitalism. Two is the question of oligarchy, whether the world turns to oligarchy is very much in play. And the other thing is rules. When Europeans talk about the rules-based order, everyone falls off their chair in boredom, but the Europeans are RIGHT.

He continued: “The argument I would use for those who don’t agree with me is this. You don’t want to be America's friend right now, the first take of the Trump admin is to make things hard for their friends (Denmark and Canada). Trump has undefined views on Ukraine, he is not necessarily out to make things hard for Ukraine. Trump One was an accidental president – he didn’t know he would have power – he sort of made it up as he went along. Trump Two is being a strongman – he will need to show he is not going to be bullied by Putin.

There are transactional things Ukrainians can do for themselves, but the image is important to Trump. The Trump people need to understand that if Trump loses Ukraine, no one will take him seriously again on any other matter.

In answer to the question from Nataliia Gumenyuk, “You report on Ukraine from the ground, but you cannot be indifferent to Damascus. How do you see this affecting our war?” Oz Katerji said: “The first thing I’ll say is that the Syrian civil war and the war in Ukraine are heavily interlinked. It’s not just that Russia intervened, its intervention was a projection of its power. Losing Syria after 13 years has a huge impact on Putin.

Ukraine has punctured the Russian image by shooting down the war criminals who bombed Syria. It is a tragedy that the narrative has shifted from this being a war about democracy to being transactional. Russia does not respect international norms. We have to recognise that.”

Considering how to answer the question from Nataliia Gumenyuk, “What are the lessons we can learn from winners of other wars?”, Philips O’Brien said: “We still don’t know how wars are won. The American and European understanding of how wars are won is way off. Anyone who thought the war in Ukraine would be won in three days was totally wrong, but the problem we have is that that kind of thinking about war did not penetrate either the Biden admin or the European nations. They think you can control war from the battlefield, but micro-managing war, drip-feeding weapons, has lengthened the war and made it more grotesque – we have created this war, made it worse because we don’t understand wars or how to win them. Russia is taking everything it can get and fighting to win, Ukraine’s backers want Ukraine to survive, keep most of its territory, but not to win.”

(…) Putin has convinced certain people that Russia can’t lose, this matters even more than undermining the view of the West in the Global South.

Populations turn against war because they realise they cannot win. People don’t mind others dying, as long as they themselves are not going to die.”

Timothy Snyder, talked about the risk of Russia winning, saying: “The people who have learnt the most from Ukrainians during this war are the Russians. Ukrainians innovate and Russians copy. If Russia wins, they will have learnt not just from fighting against Ukraine, but also from getting access to Ukrainian innovation in their victory. That is a very strong strategic argument. If you think you are in a world of great powers it is idiotic to allow the fruits of the great war of the century to fall in the lap of your rivals. It is about value – if you lose here you not only look like a loser, but you lose assets, America first then looks really silly.”

Oz Katerji exhorted the audience to understand, “Russia has no intention of withdrawing, they have to be pushed out. It likes to tell people it can’t be defeated. But when they started to lose in Syria, they did not resort to nuclear strikes, they walked away. We need to upgrade our thinking. North Korea, Russia and Iran are the most heavily sanctioned countries on the planet – and they’re now getting together and sharing resources to defeat the West. Russia does not see itself as at war with Ukrainian soldiers, they are at war with the West, with NATO, and if we think that isn’t the case – we are foolish. Russians see themselves at war with us and until we realise that – we will continue not to win.”

Addressing the idea of negotiations, of potential concessions, Philips O’Brien said: “We have a good idea of what Trump is going to do. One thing that has changed positively in Trump’s mind – is that he now believes Russia is weak. He has said Russia is weak for two nights running. The bad thing is that with a Trump administration, NATO will not happen. Ukraine will have to for security guarantees from Europe. Membership of the EU has to be the foundation of peace. Trump will want to freeze the line where it is. He will use the threat of American aid to make both agree. Ukraine, if you don’t agree, no aid for you. Russia, if you don’t agree, Ukraine gets aid.”

Photos are available here

Video is available here